CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX)Cboe Indices
18.77
+2.04
(12.194%)
⇧
(July 17, 2026, 3:15 p.m.
CDT)
|
Hot Take ↕ | July 18, 2026, 12:44 a.m. CDT
The 'fear gauge' is flashing a critical divergence: while the spot price has recently rallied back above its 50-day average (17.32) and is approaching its 52-week high territory, the options market is screaming for a violent reversal. The massive concentration of call OI at 25.0 and 65.0, combined with heavy put volume just below current levels, creates a precarious 'volatility trap.' This structure implies that any further upside will likely trigger a mean-reversion sell-off, pushing the VIX back toward 30. The market is currently pricing in a calm, but the derivative positioning suggests a storm is being hedged for. |
| Model | MAE |
|---|---|
| MSTL ✓ | 0.062551 |
| AutoTheta | 0.064377 |
| AutoETS | 0.066128 |
| AutoARIMA | 0.068766 |
Forecast horizon: 45 days | Selected: MSTL
| Forecast Reliability | |
|---|---|
| Score | 22% |
| H-stat | 7.80 |
| Ljung-Box p | 0.000 |
| Jarque-Bera p | 0.012 |
| Excess Kurtosis | 1.17 |
As of July 18, 2026, 12:44 a.m. CDT: Speculators are heavily positioning for elevated volatility, evidenced by massive out-of-the-money call open interest (OI) walls at strikes 25.0 and 65.0 across multiple expirations, alongside significant put volume at 17.0-18.5 strikes. The skew shows a distinct 'volatility floor' defense around 16-18, while the call side suggests a fear of a sharp spike toward 30+. Implied volatility surfaces show extreme spikes at deep OTM strikes (e.g., 200+), indicating a tail-risk hedge against geopolitical escalation or market dislocation, despite the current low IV environment.
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| 52 Week Change | 12.732733 |
| All Time High | 89.53 |
| All Time Low | 8.56 |
| Ask | 0.0 |
| Ask Size | 0 |
| Average Daily Volume10 Day | 0 |
| Average Daily Volume3 Month | 0 |
| Average Volume | 0 |
| Average Volume10Days | 0 |
| Bid | 0.0 |
| Bid Size | 0 |
| Crypto Tradeable | 0 |
| Currency | USD |
| Custom Price Alert Confidence | LOW |
| Day High | 0.0 |
| Day Low | 0.0 |
| Esg Populated | 0 |
| Exchange | CXI |
| Exchange Data Delayed By | 0 |
| Exchange Timezone Name | America/Chicago |
| Exchange Timezone Short Name | CDT |
| Fifty Day Average | 17.3228 |
| Fifty Day Average Change | 1.4472008 |
| Fifty Day Average Change Percent | 0.08354312 |
| Fifty Two Week Change Percent | 12.732733 |
| Fifty Two Week High | 35.3 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change | -16.529999 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change Percent | -0.46827194 |
| Fifty Two Week Low | 0.0 |
| Fifty Two Week Low Change | 18.77 |
| Fifty Two Week Range | 0.0 - 35.3 |
| First Trade Date Milliseconds | 631,267,200,000 |
| Full Exchange Name | Cboe Indices |
| Gmt Off Set Milliseconds | -18,000,000 |
| Has Pre Post Market Data | 0 |
| Language | en-US |
| Long Name | CBOE Volatility Index |
| Market | cboe_market |
| Market State | PREPRE |
| Max Age | 86,400 |
| Message Board Id | finmb_INDEXVIX |
| Open | 0.0 |
| Previous Close | 16.73 |
| Price Hint | 2 |
| Quote Type | INDEX |
| Region | US |
| Regular Market Change | 2.040001 |
| Regular Market Change Percent | 12.19367 |
| Regular Market Day High | 0.0 |
| Regular Market Day Low | 0.0 |
| Regular Market Day Range | 0.0 - 0.0 |
| Regular Market Open | 0.0 |
| Regular Market Previous Close | 16.73 |
| Regular Market Price | 18.77 |
| Regular Market Time | 1,784,319,301 |
| Regular Market Volume | 0 |
| Short Name | CBOE Volatility Index |
| Source Interval | 15 |
| Symbol | ^VIX |
| Tradeable | 0 |
| Trailing Peg Ratio | None |
| Triggerable | 0 |
| Two Hundred Day Average | 18.69035 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change | 0.07965088 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent | 0.0042616045 |
| Type Disp | Index |
| Volume | 0 |